Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Green River

Hedge funds blowing up, credit spreads widening, SPX below 50-day MA. Just what the doctor ordered to put some volatility back in the market. Like I prevously stated, all the sideline cash is in, so there should be less support and more time in this correction than the last 3 or 4 we have seen over the past 2 years. My guess is a nice downdraft occurs after the Fed meeting. Hey, they need someone to blame it on.

Hearing a huge 4-way trade in NBA. Does it really matter?

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Video Killed the Radio Star

Just imagine this, your favorite broadcaster decides after years of being on the sidelines, analyzing the game, he could jump right in. I mean what if Howard Cosell jumped in the ring to fight Larry Holmes, or Jim Nantz became the next coach at Kentucky, or Matt Lauer was running for mayor of New York. Sounds funny, but it is happening on Wall Street. Yes, one of the long time market cheerleaders, Ron Insana, is building a fund of funds. Because of the 20 years spent reading news reports of what analysts said, CEO interviews, and having lunch with money managers, makes him the right man for the job. I guess we can all go short now, since this is definitely a sign of a bubble in the markets. Moops.

As they Mets take a month off from playing baseball, I am looking forward to the pre-season hype for college football. Here in Austin, its all Longhorns, all the time. I think Colt McCoy has a good chance of getting back into the quick pass offense that he was successful with last season. The rest of the Big 12 seems weak, so it should be another BCS bowl for Coach Mack Brown.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Don't Stop Believing

Yes its been one week since the Sopranos ended. But life goes on. I think that's what David Chase wanted to put across.

The market had a nice bounce off of the 50day MA,(thanks Muckdog). With options expiration out of the way, and summer vacations starting, my best guess is the sideline cash has been put to work. That means the next dip, is going to be slower, and further. Probably a break of that 1515 pivot makes a nice short trade into the 200day around 1460, into late summer. Based on the earnings and now a normal yield curve, trend is still up for the next 12-18 months.

Getting back to the Mets and Yanks, El Duque getting lit up by his former team. I don't think the Mets have it with a starting rotation collecting Social Security.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Season's in the Sun

So when bonds have a massive selloff and that takes equities with them, which do you buy? Based on the action of the past week, you take stocks. My mantra is to buy em on sale, smoke em when you got em, not when you have to. In english, usually things get out of whack on the down side fast, so you should always have cash for these moves. But how do you get cash? You need to sell them either when they are going off the charts, or when you hit a mental stop.

Off to see the Spurs sweep.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Take me out to the Ball Game...

Took in my first Round Rock Express (AAA, Houston) game last evening. John "Bob" Saccamanno had the big stick with 2 boppers. The later came with 2 on in the 6th to straight away center field. We'll see him in the show.

The SPX bounced off of that 1515 pivot I mentioned the other day. Mid day strength could not hold especially with the 10-yr note above 5%. Apple I-Phone news out so the stock reverses an all time high. Even with an upgrade today, you probably have seen a short term top in the name. Support in the 97-99 range for you dip buyers.

Keeping a keen eye on the Gold chart. Looks like the bugs have left and trend is down. As the dollar rally continues, watch for more downside action in the commodities. With gaps in material stocks from last week takeover rumors, it may be a good time to play some of these on the short side.

Friday, June 8, 2007

"Sweet Ginger Brown"

So I bluffed the first pot of the night. I had a Jack and like an off 6, raised once, took the pot. The rest of the night went quickly. Had Jack Ten suited on the big blind, rest of the table folded except for me and the short stack, he goes all in, I call, he beats me with pocket Queens. Next hand I fold Ace of spades, deuce of clubs, flop comes all spades, guess what floats on the river?

Watched some of the celebs in action, Kevin "Hercules" Sorbo was the most popular player, not so much the best. Also, the Major League Bubble gum champ of 1977, Kurt Bevaqua, at the table.

Many thanks to Rob at KASE 101, I think the turban would have worked great.

P.S. the market rallied off that fib line at 1500. First resistance 1515.

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

You got to know when to hold'em...

One of the greatest concerts I have ever seen was Kenny Rogers at Foxwoods Casino. Pre-botox, he was the man. He did this thing where he picked a guy in the audience, asked him if his wife/girlfriend dragged him to the show. Then, he said "I'll make this worth your while. I'll give you $10 for every song you recognize." As he rolled thru the hits, he kept on doleing out the cash. The guy took home around $100.

Speaking of the Gambler, I was invited to play in a charity poker game tomorrow night. All I keep thinking about is the scene in Ocean's Eleven with Brad Pitt and the young Hollywood crowd. "You don't want 4 cards, you want to fold. Ok, I fold". Maybe I can beat Haley Joe Osmet.

The market has started its long overdue corrective move. Fibonnaci retracement on the S&P looks first at 1500, then 1465. Since the moving averages are upward sloping, shorts should be quick and cash nibbling at the support levels.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Ain't Love a Kick in the Head

Catching the original "Ocean's Eleven" in the background, not as slick as the re-make, but probably way cool for its time. Hey anytime Cesar Romero takes off the make-up, its got to be good.

For any of you who grew up like me collecting baseball cards, you remember the color and style of the different years. Especially when you "flipped". When I was in elementary school, we flipped kind of like playing gin rummy. You had to match the other players cards. I vaguely remember some kind of shift in your hand when you had double of something that would always give you an edge. When I moved across town at the age of 12, they had a different way of doing it. Something about "Larry's". I never caught the grasp of it and now have only that brief memory of what, at that time, was the only subject I could concentrate on. Check out this link as the author describes his deflowering in relation to his baseball card collection:


Of course, I was the type who hated the kid who's Dad bought him the complete set. That's cheating in my book, I would scrunge up $.75 or so to get that 3-pack every week. Somehow, you always got stuck with a lot of trips that everyone else had. But you looked cool at school with the big "wad" of cards wrapped by that industrial strength rubberband.

Thanks again to Topps, without whom, I don't think I could have made it out of 6th grade.