Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Cheap Sunglasses

So I am scanning the media this morning and one of the TV shows has a market analyst whose bullishness on tech in 99-02 is noteworthy. This morning, he was the "bear" in the conversation. That is all I needed to know, 300 points later on the DJIA and it confirms most market moves. This afternoon a report on how to "hedge" your home from losing its value. A little too late? The market is a forward looking discounting mechanism. If you listen to what the money honeys are saying, its too late to act. I would take some profits SPX 1485-1495 in order to reload on a pullback, but still looking for a rally above 1540 in Q1 2008.

Gold had a nice dip last week, but I did not buy it. Oil missed 100, probably headed for 78. Aggressive traders could buy put spreads on oil ETF's. Volatility will crash on the way down. This is a commodity play, not an equity play. Stay away from energy stocks unless the chart looks like a breakdown.

Volatility is still high, would be a seller of OTM options vs stock, especially in financials.

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