Saturday, October 20, 2007


So here is the scenario, middle of October, options expiration, news about currency dislocation all over the tape, two middle market baseball teams in the World Series (probably), market coming off new highs from the summer, a really bad selloff on Friday: 1987 redux???

If I was still a floor trader, probably take one of those 10-1 shots here on some cheapy puts. Something like buying a lottery ticket and you know what the last number is. However, now that I work with clients, I am already positioned with some cash and was able to be a net buyer on the day. If there is that "Black Swan" event, our portfolios are pretty diversified and bonds and commodities will do well.

Looking for 1495 SPX to hold, I would start to get nervous with a weekly close lower than that. Buywrites looking real nice here with VIX blowing above 21.

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