You ever notice that people want something for nothing, and nothing is never good enough. Using basic calculus, then something is always the least. A bird in hand is worth two, whatever. As long as my stock is going up, nothing is wrong with my stock and vice versa. Guys like Steinhardt and Robertson couldn't grasp this in 1998-99 with the Nasdaq rally. They hung it up. I guess when you amassed a few hundred million, its easy to retire. Very simple, pick your entries carefully, define your exits, take some risk out of the equation when you can, let the rest ride.
I mentioned spin-offs before, here the street is giving you a great entry. The big holders don't want these little stubbies on their books, so they dump'em. As long as you give yourself some room (remember time and price), then they can work fantastically well.
Showing posts with label spin-offs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spin-offs. Show all posts
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
China Girl
Thanks for all of your commentary to my patriotism. I enjoyed the quote "the only time I feel red, white and blue is when I do laundry". Still holding back the tears from that. Well its back to business.
Woke up this morning, and the idiots on TV blaring the "Shanghi Swoon" alert. If a market goes up 30%, then down 10%, then up 40% in 6 months, do you really think it can't be down 6% in a day? The fact that it is the largest Socialist country on earth doesn't surprise you that they can get more tax dollars by raising fees on stock transactions? Doesn't anyone remember 1999? Beuller?
While I am on a rant, last night I read an article in one of these wealth advisors magazines. The supposed "financial writer" who contributed to this article on OTC derivs really blew my mind with his ignorance. He compared a bond fund that sells the CDS on its holdings is equivalent to covered call writing in equities. When in real life, we all know that the fund manager is simply doubling his bets. It is actually the equivalent of selling puts, not calls on his bonds. But that really doesn't matter, does it?
One item flying low on the radar is the amount of spin-off activity. While not as sexy as private equity cash deals, spin-offs allow you to trade like an arbitrageur with a hell of a lot less risk.
Woke up this morning, and the idiots on TV blaring the "Shanghi Swoon" alert. If a market goes up 30%, then down 10%, then up 40% in 6 months, do you really think it can't be down 6% in a day? The fact that it is the largest Socialist country on earth doesn't surprise you that they can get more tax dollars by raising fees on stock transactions? Doesn't anyone remember 1999? Beuller?
While I am on a rant, last night I read an article in one of these wealth advisors magazines. The supposed "financial writer" who contributed to this article on OTC derivs really blew my mind with his ignorance. He compared a bond fund that sells the CDS on its holdings is equivalent to covered call writing in equities. When in real life, we all know that the fund manager is simply doubling his bets. It is actually the equivalent of selling puts, not calls on his bonds. But that really doesn't matter, does it?
One item flying low on the radar is the amount of spin-off activity. While not as sexy as private equity cash deals, spin-offs allow you to trade like an arbitrageur with a hell of a lot less risk.
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