Its a Beautiful Day

Hey folks.  I'm back, but no play by play.  Compliance issues with b/d will prevent me from talking about anything business related.  So if you are interested, shoot me an email, if not, I will try to give some kind of outlook on what I see from a personal level.

Cheers,
Eric

Na na na na, hey hey hey, Goodbye.

Bet here is that we don't stay long above 1000 SPX. AAPL looks vulnerable, and volatility is cheap. SEP options usually a great value, and now is the time. QQQQ 40 puts @ 1.40 also a good play. Remember, to define your risk, and let the trade develop. Stay small, and let your winners run.

A lot of cash mergers announced recently. Good place to put some of that hard earned trading money to rest.

All Star break

Sell them now. 925-930 SPX should be resistance here, although with expiration in 2 days, we could see a real short squeeze. 5% in a week baby, that's what we like. Longer term still bullish, but we will most definitely retest the 905-910 gap from this morning. Tech's leading the way, with telecom the laggard of that group.

Interest rates, currencies and commodities pretty volatile here. Seems the real battle is being done in that arena. Stocks waiting for the global economy to pull us out of the abyss. Summertime trading is wet and wild, be careful out there.

Merger activity small, as NRG still interesting.

Peace out.

Summer Loving happened so fast...

Buy hat on. Looking to get some love in here 875 SPX level. Plenty of negative sentiment on the boob tube, oil the leading indicator. I like the homies, banks, and metals. Lets roll baby.

Bye Bye Love

Market made a new high, then sold off, then gapped higher, then sells off. Hmmmm. Distribution is the name of this game. How am I to play it? Looking at DIA options, buying the 82/78/74 put fly for $0.85. Thats 4 weeks for the market to retrace 5% and nearly a 4 to 1 risk reward. Don't wait for the goods to be on sale, buy now and I will throw in a Graty :)

Swingtown

Elliot wave theorists looking at this recent up move from 850-875 SPX as a 5th of 5 wave. I see it as a bull trap. That is when the market charts make it look easy to buy the new high, but we will see what pain the market brings. Raising some cash and getiing hedged here at 875. If we make a new low on the day, then this bull move should be done for a while.

I'm not waiting on a lady, I'm just waiting on the FED.

Apple Pie

So its time to see if the recession has slowed down iPod's and iPhone sales. AAPL reporting tonight and I would have to say any whiff of disappointment may send the shares lower than the price of an ishuffle. Earnings plays make you pay for the move in spades. One way to offset the premium is to sell time spreads. In this case, I think we see lower prices so selling the June 130 calls and buying the May 130 gets you about $2.30. I would also sell the June 100 puts and buy 2 x the May 100 puts. This will get you another $0.50 and some juice for a big miss.